This is going to hurt.
This will hurt and most of you will not believe it because you think it is mad. And I was you I do not care because it is also true. When one is studying history, one realizes that at any given time there is a wave of historical events. When one looks at it mathematically, and ortho normalizes the structure, it looks like a sinusoidal wave:
There are other waves, in each one will be dominated by a particular wave at a particular time. We search for the late stage of a particular wave because that is the area where the pending of the curve downwards is most apparent.
The reason for this curve is a cause of the population pyramid, Which is a function derived from a Fourier transform where the group of women, largely from 15 to 45 though there are outliers, produce babies who then raise the chart. Because this is history and not biology, several details are not present in a merely biological system. The obvious one is writing, which is part of what makes “history” history. This means that there are not only Fourier transforms but Laplace transforms as well. These constitute the basis of the wave: individual decisions which make up both detailed events that one can see (Fourier), and detailed events which only emerge after they have long since been decided (Laplace).
Of course, there is another wave that is building and takes advantage of the fact that this newer wave can solve certain problems that the older wave cannot. A simple example would be quantum and general relativity as opposed to classical physics: certain problems could be solved in quantum electrodynamics or general relativity which could not be solved classically.
This means that the wave needs a general name, and the succession of waves needs to be in lockstep for some time. At the end of a wave, the individuals who are part of that wave will borrow from the future wave. This is economics, humanities, politics, and other forms of the wave. They merely think of it as transferring wealth from future recipients to the present. It is not, but individuals are capable of making large leaps of faith especially if they profit from the difference.
I will call these waves “cultural systems.” At present, the reigning wave can be described as the “postmodern.” I do not mean only the continental philosophical system of, for example, Foucault and Derrida, though they are part of this wave, a more general use that focuses on particular problems including architecture, history, and art. The most important aspect of this postmodern wave is how information is delivered to people and the form of color being dominant in that information, the game theory which allows individuals to solve certain problems, including the most pressing one, global thermonuclear war. This means that it is Neumann, Nash, and Schelling who are the principal architects of the economic and social structure. However, it is why the means of history that this idea can be communicated.
A great deal of the time I spend almost all of my existence with equations and examples of both mathematical theory and history. I spend my time with the Lyapunov function and Jacobian Matrices. I often spend my time realizing that I have made horrendous mistakes and need to start over again. For example, one central part of the theory is that the motions of the cultural system are Xaotic. I say “Xaos” rather than the more conventional “chaos” because using the normal form means that there are two antithetical definitions: one of them is random like the rolling of dice whereas the other one is deterministic and there is nothing of luck about it. Since the word chaos is also the word “gas” it does not seem unreasonable to bifurcate a new word for a new idea.
Now to get to what will seem completely mad: on this channel, several people are expressing their ideas. This is good. However, there is often a great wave of deception that comes with social media and its tendency to flood its airwaves with nonsense. This is part of why the “late phase” is as it is: people do not want to divorce the old because the new is tenuous and uncertain with gaps in the way that it appears to people.
Again, this is normal. But it is also depressing because it fails to think. After all, it would rather emote. There is also the fact that there are many opinions and directions. And there must be so because of the welter of ideas. Unfortunately, many of them are truly truly truly truly truly terrible. And because of the virtues and vices of social media, it is the truly truly truly truly terrible ideas that must be expressed, because, in reality, these are the ideas that have played themselves out.
This is why social media resonates with terrible ideas: the thing that must be expressed is also one of the worst ideas that people cling to as the ship sinks.
Because I am a creature of social media, and a rather minor one at that, certain ideas have one of their traits truly abysmal virtue: the idea betrays its foundations. That is to say, the very props on which the idea rests need to be disintegrated with extreme abandonment.
Currently, there is one which has currency. I should not say anything about them, because it would be untoward and unwise. Unfortunately, I am a good deal smarter than the majority of social media types and occasionally it wells up from my osteoblasts to my pores.
The first is a political truth that is extremely unpopular at the present, but it is also a fundamental axiom of politics: when a person is running for another term, the first question is “Is the incumbent capable of doing the job that they are currently doing?” unfortunately, people who want the current occupant to continue to do his job when he is not capable of doing it, want to avoid this question. They ask if people know the opponent’s faults. They ask any number of things to avoid answering the simple question. I will say quite loudly that I am among the most liberal of people in the US. But I realize that facts, axioms, and the interpretation of those facts must trump any idea of how I would like the election to go.
This means that Biden fails the first test. Now because there are so many variables it is possible that he could win, but it is very unlikely. The markets, who have about an 85% chance of determining the winner, have their chances around 25%. This, in case you need guidance, is not good especially because the alternative is among the worst candidates ever to set foot on a stage. This means that there is a second point: you must run your best candidate. Anything else, and I think we all know what I’m talking about, is beside the point. If you are not running your best candidate, or something closely approaching that, then you are going to be served the worst. This means Biden must go. You can scream if you want. You can make magical signs and say that those signs say that we must defeat the opposition. Unfortunately, the two facts prevent this from occurring. What is more to the point, is you are insulting a large number of people who must vote for you as are candidate. This is because you are essentially saying that everyone else needs to do what is necessary but my party does not. This does not win. Not even close.
The reason this is part of my discipline is because one of the changes is the nature of the overwhelming threat. In the early 1990s global thermonuclear war was dethroned as the number one threat. Albert Gore, of all people, realized this and wanted to shift to tackling climate change, though it was not called climate change at that point. However, the waves that I talked about as a cultural system were not ready to do this and, I meant to call it what it is, the 2000 election was stolen. Some eight years later the world ranking system collapsed because of this. Again, this is common in a cultural system: the people running it do not understand that they do not have free choice as to what to do. Things such as the Great Depression, World War I, and Vietnam were the results of a mistaken “choice” that was not. These are the reasons that cultural systems collapse: the people running them do not understand that the times have changed because of technical, social, and political shifts.
This means that it is not “Biden” per se. he is merely a cog in a larger system. That system needs to be shifted from allowing the fossil fuel economy to run down and profits to be taken from it to a renewable energy system that has instead of outputs inputs. That is, several of the changes are expensive. Such as the power system and its assumption that consumers are people who simply consume rather than produce as well. This is a large undertaking. One cannot both capture value and make investments. The time for the fossil fuel economy to give value back to its owners is over. Let me repeat that: capturing fossil fuel value does not exist. What does exist is the ability to say that there is value and the wealth from that value. But it is merely “say” rather than what truly is.
The reality is that the present can borrow from the future because the teacher does not exist yet and cannot object. The people who could object have not even been born.
There are other dilemmas in the area of law, but the current crisis is that the world will be too hot. People like Biden are from an age that does not let them see that, and even if they did they would be long gone before the consequences truly hit a desperation level that is on par with the Cold War. Because that is the level of crisis that we are talking about. This needs to be fixed because one cannot have profits when there are losses. Capitalism does not work and only the People’s Republic of China believes in the form of communism which ignores it.
Again, the numbers, graphs, and formulas that save this are beyond the grasp of most people. The grandchildren will learn the intricacies of cultural systems with their effect on history, political science, and economics. This is why I do not care what you think, this is because there is another point that depresses me but is also part of the cultural system: I am disabled as well as old, and that makes me ineligible to be part of the academic apparatus. This means that I am capable of contributing at the highest level to academia, but for the same cultural systems effects will be discarded because of my disability and age. There is even something poetic: I am capturing why I am going to be ignored for at least 25 years.
Again, the simple matter is that you must run your best candidate for office or take the consequences of an electorate that does not want to answer the question that many of you wish desperately to ignore. The rest of the world can be.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/08/the-guardian-view-on-joe-bidens-re-election-bid-democrats-cant-go-on-like-this
Very interesting, many-sided article. I found your first spiral exactly reflecting the life of my native county and my own. Visionary - Lenin. Revolutionary- his vision was embodied into bloody revolution of 1917. Evolutionary- Stalin purges, Collectivization, Industrialization. Last stop- XAOS , (you write and explain it in in Russian sense), USSR collapsed. Nostalgic- I am here, in US, write my memoir Wrong Country and vey nostalgic about my wrong country.
The aspects of your second scheme I didn't comprehend. World history shows that not one country ever depended on cultural or philosophical systems but only political and economical, starting from slavery.
Now, Biden or not Biden, from the practical POV, I never saw this rich country in worse position than now. I go to a supermarket and see old pensioners. Instead of enjoying their best time in life, they are standing their 8-hour shift on their old week legs, serving the rest of us. Of course, it's not philosophical topic, sorry for such a prosaism, but I feel ashamed looking at them and it becomes political because this picture reminds me the ruined itself Soviet socialism.